Report: California economy recovery will lag a few more years

150 150 Cheryl Getuiza

Infographic courtesty of the OC Register

Have you ever heard the phrase “slow and steady wins the race?” Well, grab a seat and enjoy the slow ride. According to a new report released by the UCLA Anderson Forecast, we’ve got at least three more years until we are out of this Great Recession.

“There has been no recovery,” said economist and forecast director Edward Leamer.

The state will likely see continued slow, steady gains in employment through this year, but the rest of the country and our state’s international partners will see faster growth next year and 2014.

Here are predicted unemployment rates from the folks at UCLA:

  • 2012 – 10.6%
  • 2013 – 9.7%
  • 2014 – 8.3%
  • 2015 – 7.2%

By 2015, the forecast says, our state economy will have recovered the jobs lost during the downturn, boosting employment back to 15.2 million. 

“We have seen rapid job growth in the retail and tech sectors, but when you add it all up job growth in California has been subpar,” senior Anderson Economist Jerry Nickelsburg said in his outlook for the state. “Even though jobs will be at the level prior to the recession, unemployment will still be high because the number of people entering the labor force will have grown.”

There is one major problem believed to be holding the economy from moving forward—having a skilled workforce for jobs available now. Those people need to be retrained for good jobs in high-wage sectors like technology.

It was a critical topic discussed at the first California Economic Summit in May, which more than 500 people attended. The topic of workforce development attracted the most attendees when it came time to break into workgroups.

“It requires a different type of thinking, an innovative way of thinking to match employers with jobs needs and jobs training,” said Lucy Dunn, President and CEO of the Orange County Business Council, at the Summit.

“To help prepare training programs for them, prepare all kinds of continuing education. Education is one of the pillars of a strong economy, a strong society,” said Dr. Fernando Guerra, Professor of Political Sciences and Chicano Studies at Loyola Marymount University, also during the Summit.

What does this all mean? The economy will improve, albeit slowly. Remember, good things will come to our state, we will turn things around, California will become golden again.


Cheryl Getuiza

All stories by: Cheryl Getuiza